Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 2.308434 2.442976 2.589388 2.762194 2.962852 3.191525 3.476511
2025-09-14 2.105355 2.265038 2.445684 2.668877 2.942919 3.277001 3.730589
2025-09-21 2.004825 2.183943 2.392744 2.660419 3.005034 3.451597 4.111371
2025-09-28 1.907487 2.095258 2.318632 2.612471 3.004050 3.535814 4.378449
2025-10-05 1.874316 2.079074 2.328628 2.667469 3.139350 3.821891 5.020209
2025-10-12 1.856774 2.079259 2.356957 2.746341 3.314565 4.197331 5.962061
2025-10-19 1.806134 2.033930 2.322335 2.734799 3.354887 4.365765 6.593892
2025-10-26 1.767527 2.001352 2.301562 2.739485 3.418360 4.584226 7.472828
2025-11-02 1.712155 1.944220 2.244380 2.686897 3.384540 4.618749 7.908575
2025-11-09 1.673055 1.906546 2.211331 2.666684 3.400164 4.749628 8.745175
2025-11-16 1.639135 1.874165 2.183650 2.652007 3.422598 4.898355 9.824487
2025-11-23 1.606661 1.842361 2.155092 2.633735 3.436341 5.031730 11.069482
2025-11-30 1.585851 1.826462 2.149407 2.652348 3.521306 5.358098 14.274496
2025-12-07 1.534225 1.767224 2.080055 2.567491 3.410399 5.195443 13.935419
2025-12-14 1.509520 1.743728 2.060567 2.559994 3.441447 5.392409 17.413063
2025-12-21 1.475352 1.706277 2.019660 2.516048 3.399788 5.394114 19.263554
2025-12-28 1.471063 1.709461 2.037144 2.566649 3.544350 5.947433 46.008339
2026-01-04 1.472750 1.720764 2.066707 2.638979 3.743711 6.788546 NaN
2026-01-11 1.451965 1.699956 2.047798 2.628425 3.769212 7.071583 NaN
2026-01-18 1.436157 1.685652 2.037993 2.632722 3.827436 7.519209 NaN
2026-01-25 1.407678 1.652731 1.999090 2.584527 3.763847 7.439038 NaN
2026-02-01 1.387937 1.631769 1.977684 2.565977 3.765921 7.653691 NaN
2026-02-08 1.370347 1.613441 1.959694 2.552498 3.778305 7.930318 NaN